According to the central bank’s report, the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) rose 6.6 points to 113.8 compared to March 2024, standing 13.8 points above the long-term average.

The uptick ESI was driven by the increased confidence in the sectors of industry, services, trade as well as in consumer confidence, while confidence in construction was slightly down.

The Industry  Confidence  Indicator  (ICI)  rose  3.5  percentage  points  in  April,  mostly driven by  more positive evaluation on current production and order books. The current ICI rate stands at 7 percentage points above the historical average. Businesses operating in this sector have increased expectations on employment in the future. Their expectations on selling prices in the future have remained unchanged.

The Construction Confidence Indicator (BCI) slightly fell by 0.7 percentage point for the second consecutive month in April.  However, the  BCI  stands  around  22  percentage  points  above  the  long-term  average. The lower assessments of businesses operating in this sector on their current order books mainly drove to this fall. On the other hand, expectations on employment and prices in the future are edging up.

Services Confidence Indicator (SCI) increased considerably by 8.2 percentage points in April 2024, with the current SCI level close to the highest historical values, around 22 percentage points above its long-term average. Both components of SCI – current performance of business and the level of  demand – picked  up.  Also, businesses operating in services sector have increased expectations on employment and prices for the future.

Trade  Confidence  Indicator  (TCI)  recorded  the  highest  increase  across  all  indicators  in  April  2024,  by  around  9.3  percentage  points.  The optimistic assessments on the current performance of business drove to this sharp rise. Expectations on employment were also up in April, though to a lesser extent compared with the first component. The current level of TCI stands around 13 percentage points above the historical average. Businesses  operating  in  this  sector  have  increased  their  expectations  on  business performance in the future, while lowering their expectations on future price.

Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) rose by 3.8 percentage points, reinforcing the upward trend started last month. Its current level has exceeded the historical average by 4.6 percentage points. The CCI improved in April 2024 thanks to  all  its  components,  respectively:  improved  expectations  on  the  overall  economic situation, the financial situation, as well as an on major purchases. Expectations on the overall future prices and employment have been revised downwards.

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According central bank data, the Economic Sentiment Indicator showed a downward trend for the third consecutive month, mainly reflecting the negative impact of the rising prices on Albanian businesses and consumers.

The fall in Economic Sentiment Indicator reflected the decrease in confidence across the sectors of construction and services, as well as deterioration of the consumers’ confidence.

On the other hand, the confidence indicator across the sectors of industry and trade slightly improved in September.

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General Director of Taxes Delina Ibrahimaj stated in an interview for ATA that the increase in revenues shows the revival of the economy and the improvement of the taxpayers’ situation in the country.

“This year has started well in terms of economic performance and income. In fact, by the end of last year, there were felt the signs of economic recovery and improvement of the taxpayers’ situation in the country”, said Ibrahimaj.

According to her, the Tax Administration during the first quarter of the current year realized revenues above the expected level. These revenues are estimated to be 5.2% higher than planned.

“In our analysis, comparing the data not only with 2020 which was not an ordinary year, but also with 2019, we had an increase of 5.2%”, she stated.

Meanwhile, the item that is also the main indicator of real economic activity in the country, Value Added Tax (VAT) has increased, compared to 2019 by about 9.7%.

“VAT increase shows that the Albanian economy has recovered and is moving at an accelerated pace compared to the same period of 2019, a period not affected by the pandemic and with a normal economic activity “, she added.

These, continues Ibrahimaj, are very positive indicators for the performance of the following year.

“The government has expectations of high economic growth this year and taking into account the indicators so far, but also the fact that we are on the verge of opening a much better tourist season than last year, I think in the coming months, the economy will continue to grow,” said the Director General of Taxation. /j.p/p.s./