According to the agency, the positive outlook reflects the strengthening of Albania’s fiscal and external positions, as well as the recent acceleration in the implementation of structural reforms within the framework of the European Union accession process.

The confirmation of the ‘Ba3’ rating reflects Albania’s solid economic growth performance, moderate levels of public debt, the economy’s resilience to a series of shocks in recent years, and expectations that growth will remain robust in the medium term.

Moody’s forecasts real GDP growth of 3.6% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027, noting that Albania’s economy has so far demonstrated resilience to the effects of the conflict in the Middle East, thanks to its near‑total reliance on renewable energy.

Moody’s notes that the authorities have consistently demonstrated fiscal discipline and that public finances have been progressively strengthened. Albania has recorded primary surpluses in each of the past three years, following the introduction of a fiscal rule requiring a non‑negative primary balance. The fiscal deficit in 2025 stood at 1.8% of GDP, lower than the budgeted level, partly due to solid revenue performance.

Moody’s projects that, supported by strong economic growth and controlled fiscal deficits, Albania’s general government debt will continue to decline gradually, reaching 50.2% of GDP in 2027 from 52.9% at the end of 2025. This improvement is underpinned by fiscal reforms, including the implementation of the Medium‑Term Revenue Strategy in 2025, enhancements in public investment management, and adherence to fiscal rules requiring debt reduction until it reaches 45% of GDP. The agency also notes that government liquidity risks are mitigated by access to financing from the EU and international financial institutions, proactive debt management, and a stable domestic funding base.

Albania’s external position strengthened significantly in 2025, with the current account deficit narrowing to a historic low of 0.7% of GDP from 2.4% in 2024, driven by a smaller goods trade deficit and a higher surplus in services, reflecting strong growth in tourism‑related exports. This trend continued in 2026 despite energy price shocks stemming from the conflict in the Middle East, and Moody’s expects the current account deficit to remain low, averaging around 1% of GDP in 2026–2027.

Net inflows of foreign direct investment remained substantial, at around 5% of GDP in 2025 and in the first quarter of 2026, continuing to fully finance — and even over‑finance — the current account deficit. Foreign exchange reserves have risen progressively, reaching about €7.9 billion in June 2026, a level covering well over seven months of imports and providing significant protection against external shocks.

Moody’s observes that since the opening of accession negotiations in 2022, Albania has established a significant reform dynamic. In May 2026, the country marked a key milestone when the EU assessed that Albania had met the interim benchmarks of the ‘Fundamentals’ cluster, covering democratic institutions, public administration reform, rule of law, and economic criteria. This development enables Albania to begin closing negotiation chapters.

Albania will continue to benefit from EU financing, both through pre‑accession instruments and the New Growth Plan for the Western Balkans, under which the indicative allocation for Albania amounts to €922.1 million. Moody’s assesses that the ongoing reform progress, supported by these funds, has the potential to further strengthen the country’s institutional and governance profile.

Moody’s upgrade of Albania’s outlook and reaffirmation of its rating is a significant indicator of the country’s macroeconomic stability and ongoing structural reform progress, sending a positive signal to international investors and supporting Albania’s long‑term European integration objectives.

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Finance Minister Petrit Malaj announced the development, describing it as a positive signal for the Albanian economy.

According to Malaj, the improved outlook is linked to the performance of the Albanian economy in recent years, the rise in revenues, and the reduction of public debt.

“Today I want to share good news for the Albanian economy. Credit rating agency Moody’s has upgraded Albania’s outlook from stable to positive. Put simply, one of the world’s most important agencies is saying that Albania is moving in the right direction. And this is no coincidence. For more than three years, Albania has recorded steady economic growth, rising revenues, and a reduction in public debt,” he stressed.

Malaj further stressed that fiscal policies and reforms undertaken within the framework of the European Union integration process have contributed to strengthening the country’s credibility on the international stage.

“We have spent responsibly and demonstrated fiscal discipline throughout the entire period,” said the Finance Minister.

He added: “The reforms we are undertaking on our path towards European Union membership are beginning to deliver results, and these results are being recognised internationally.’

“Moody’s message is straightforward: Albania is becoming more stable, more credible, and increasingly attractive to foreign investors,” he said.

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