According to the Ministry, Moody’s highlighted the resilience of the Albanian economy and forecasts real GDP growth of 3.6% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026.

Economic growth is expected to be supported mainly by the continued performance of the tourism sector, steady inflows of foreign direct investment-particularly in energy and tourism-and higher labour market participation.

On the fiscal side, the rating agency noted that budget execution remained prudent in 2025. Moody’s estimates the fiscal deficit at 1.8% of GDP in 2025, up from 0.7% in 2024 but still below the government’s target of 2.4%.

The agency also expects Albania’s public debt-to-GDP ratio to decline slightly to around 51% by 2027, from an estimated 52.6% in 2025, supported by solid economic growth and a balanced or slightly positive primary fiscal balance. Public debt is projected to continue declining gradually over the next three to five years, reflecting adherence to a prudent fiscal framework.

According to the Ministry, the “stable” outlook reflects Moody’s assessment that upside and downside risks to Albania’s Ba3 rating are broadly balanced. The agency expects reforms linked to European Union accession to continue, albeit at a gradual pace, while liquidity risks for the government and banking sector remain manageable.

The reaffirmation of the rating signals macroeconomic stability and continued progress in structural reforms, providing a positive signal to international investors and supporting Albania’s long-term European integration goals.

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