TIRANA, April 13 /ATA/ The measures taken by the government last year to bring economy back on its feet in the face of pandemic and in the aftermath of November 2019 earthquake have given their positive effects.
In this regard, the International Monetary Fund has revised its 2020 economic growth outlook for 2020.
According to forecasts published in the Global Economic Outlook in April, the IMF estimates that over the past year the recession was much more smoother and controlled than previously forecast, namely in the range of about -3.5 percent from -7.5% which was initially forecast.
For the current year (2021), the IMF predicts that growth will bounce back to a level of about +5.5 percent, to further converge in the medium term 2022 – 2026 to an average of about +3.5 percent per year.
Also, the IMF forecast is that Gross Domestic Product (GDP), at current prices in 2020 will reach about 17.1 billion ALL, a figure that exceeds the pre-pandemic level. In its previous forecasts, the IMF believed that the pre-crisis level could only be overcome in 2022.
The IMF in its preliminary outlook estimates that total public debt (including arrears) for 2020 will be about 76 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). While it predicts almost a stabilization of this level (with a marginal reduction) in 2021 and further a more significant reduction in the following medium term 2022 – 2026.
While it predicts that the primary budget balance will return to marginally positive levels from 2023 onwards, in line with the new fiscal rule included in the Organic Budget Law in July 2020.
